Bitcoin signal | RSI Check
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Times S&P 500 exposure using Bitcoin’s recent returns and a stock‑vs‑Treasury momentum check. Shorts the S&P when Bitcoin and stocks look hot; goes 3x long when Bitcoin’s month is up but its week isn’t; otherwise sits in cash-like T‑bills.
BITO (a Bitcoin ETF) is the trigger. Each day:
1) If BITO’s 5‑day return > 0, compare recent momentum (RSI, a 0–100 strength score) of SPY (stocks) vs SHY (short Treasuries). If SPY’s score is lower, hold BIL (T‑bill/cash-like). Otherwise short stocks with SPXU (−3x S&P).
2) If BITO’s 5‑day return ≤ 0, check its 21‑day return. If > 0, go long stocks with UPRO (+3x S&P). Else hold BIL.
Only switches when signals flip; uses volatile 3x ETFs.
Out-of-sample annualized return 24.7% vs 23.7% for SPY, with near-zero beta and Calmar ~1.17—strong risk-adjusted growth and diversification. Bitcoin-based timing guides S&P exposure, reserving cash when risk rises for resilience and upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 | -0.33 | 0.04 | -0.2 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.27% | 10.85% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.67 | |
| 378.13% | 44.26% | 0.27% | 7.9% | 1.37 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$47,813.30Regulatory Fees
$228.94
Total Slippage
$1,517.52
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto-signal,equity-timing,leveraged-etfs,risk-on/off,trend-momentum,market-hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total