Bitcoin signal | RSI Check
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
Times S&P 500 exposure using Bitcoin’s recent returns and a stock‑vs‑Treasury momentum check. Shorts the S&P when Bitcoin and stocks look hot; goes 3x long when Bitcoin’s month is up but its week isn’t; otherwise sits in cash-like T‑bills.
BITO (a Bitcoin ETF) is the trigger. Each day:
1) If BITO’s 5‑day return > 0, compare recent momentum (RSI, a 0–100 strength score) of SPY (stocks) vs SHY (short Treasuries). If SPY’s score is lower, hold BIL (T‑bill/cash-like). Otherwise short stocks with SPXU (−3x S&P).
2) If BITO’s 5‑day return ≤ 0, check its 21‑day return. If > 0, go long stocks with UPRO (+3x S&P). Else hold BIL.
Only switches when signals flip; uses volatile 3x ETFs.
Out-of-sample return: 24.73% vs SPY 23.72%; Calmar ~1.17 and Sharpe ~1.08 indicate solid risk-adjusted gains. Bitcoin timing plus SPX hedges aim for higher upside with disciplined risk, though drawdowns can exceed SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 | -0.33 | 0.04 | -0.2 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.4% | 10.7% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.66 | |
| 378.19% | 44.22% | 0.28% | 7.88% | 1.37 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$47,818.53Regulatory Fees
$228.94
Total Slippage
$1,517.52
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto-signal,equity-timing,leveraged-etfs,risk-on/off,trend-momentum,market-hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total