Balanced Portfolio (Quarterly) with Recession Case (100D)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A two-mode portfolio driven by a 100‑day SPY trend check: if SPY is above its ~5‑month average, go defensive (mostly long Treasuries and gold); otherwise hold a balanced 5‑way mix of US stocks, Treasuries, and gold. Rebalanced daily.
Each day it checks SPY (a fund tracking 500 big US stocks). If SPY’s price is above its average over the last ~100 days (~5 months), it goes defensive: ~70% long‑term US Treasuries (VGLT), 20% gold (SGOL), 10% US stocks (VTI). Otherwise it holds 20% each in VTI, small‑value stocks (VIOV), long‑ and short‑term Treasuries (VGLT, VGSH), and gold (SGOL). It rebalances to those targets daily.
Out-of-sample: Sharpe 2.91 vs 2.68, drawdown 3.28% vs 5.07%, positive alpha ~0.18%, Calmar 7.57—delivers steadier, downside-protected gains with a disciplined, regime-based tilt that complements the S&P 500, not just chase index returns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0.31 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 711.57% | 14.51% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.88 | |
| 151.46% | 6.15% | 2.69% | 5.8% | 0.64 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$25,145.70Regulatory Fees
$112.96
Total Slippage
$287.02
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend signal, multi-asset, us stocks, treasuries, gold, defensive rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total