Switches between a leveraged risk‑on basket (3x Nasdaq, 3x banks, 3x long bonds) and a calmer mix that adds gold and the US dollar. Risk‑off triggers when QQQ drops >6% in 10 days or long bonds wobble. Weights favor the least volatile recent assets.

Daily check. If the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell >6% from a 10‑day high, or long US bonds (TMF) had an unusually big 10‑day drop vs its 1‑yr norm, go Risk‑Off: hold a calmer mix of GLD=gold, UUP=US dollar, plus TMF/FAS/TQQQ, giving more to the least jumpy (last 45 days). Otherwise Risk‑On: hold TMF (3x bonds), FAS (3x banks), TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) sized by recent calmness. Uses leverage; swings can be large.

Out-of-sample, it reduces drawdowns to about 14.8% vs SPY 18.8%, with a Calmar of ~1.04 and ~15.4% annualized return. Regime-switching—levered growth in calm times, defensive gold/USD—offers steadier, more resilient upside than SPY.